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AWUS01 KWNH 222203
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0662
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Southern New England...Long
Island...New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222200Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will likely result in areas of flash flooding over the next few
hours from southern New England down through Long Island and much
of New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows an
impressive cluster of organizing and merging showers and
thunderstorms crossing areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
southeast NY and portions of southern New England. The activity
will be edging outside of MPD #659 over the next hour and will be
reaching the Atlantic coast by 00Z. Adjacent areas of southern New
England on south down across Long Island, and most of northern New
Jersey will be seeing very heavy rain arrive over the next 1 to 2
hours.

Expect rainfall rates of as much as 2 to 3 inches/hr given the
level of cold-topped convection and interaction with a very moist
and unstable airmass pooled along and south of a front draped from
northern Pennsylvania up across far northern New Jersey and
adjacent areas of southern New England. Multiple waves of low
pressure riding along the front will foster at least locally
concentrated swaths of heavy rainfall with as much as 3 to 5
inches of rain not out of the question going through 03Z. The
latest HRRR guidance and experimental runs of the NSSL WoFS
guidance has been advertising this potential.

Flash flooding will be likely as this activity continues to
advance east over the next couple of hours and impacts highly
urbanized areas along and adjacent the I-95 corridor.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   42437147 42267093 41827076 41367118 40877209
            40607293 40447409 40447502 40817514 41137465
            41537354 42167235


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