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AWUS01 KWNH 222156
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230350-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0661
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222150Z - 230350Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms initiating across portions of
southeast NM and southwest TX will likely expand in coverage over
the next few hours, with more concentrated heavy rainfall possible
later this evening. Some flash flooding will be possible from
slow-moving cells capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows
convective initiation well underway across areas of southeast NM
and southwest TX with cloud tops gradually cooling in response to
strong diurnal heating and resulting destabilization of the
boundary layer across the southern High Plains. The airmass is
rather moist too with relatively convergent post-frontal low-level
east to northeast flow aiming in across southeast NM. The latest
RAP analysis already shows as much as 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE across
southeast NM, and some additional destabilization of the boundary
layer is expected with a few more hours of diurnal heating.

Satellite imagery is showing a well-defined MCV dropping south
very slowly across eastern NM around the eastern flank of a
mid-level ridge that is anchored over the Four Corners region. The
latest hires model guidance suggests this energy interacting with
the pool of greater instability/moisture transporting across
southeast NM later this afternoon and evening for what should be
at least broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

PWATs across the region are already on the order of 1.5 to 2+
standard deviations above normal, and this will set the stage for
convection that will be capable of producing heavier rainfall
rates this afternoon and especially this evening. The last few
runs of the HRRR guidance has been quite emphatic on some locally
concentrated heavy rainfall setting up across portions of Chaves
and Eddy counties in southeast NM, and Culberson county in
southwest TX between 00Z and 06Z, and this appears to be related
to a modest strengthening of the low-level flow across the region
toward the higher terrain of the southern Rockies where
orographics/forcing will be maximized.

As much as 2 to 4+ inches of rain will be possible locally going
through 03Z, and some flash flooding will be possible as a result.
Additional rain is expected after this time frame which will only
prolong the flash flood threat. Will continue to closely monitor.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34400412 34380345 33870310 32850285 31850310
            31440370 31390458 31810601 32450660 33230642
            33660556 34010485


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