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AWUS01 KWNH 222112
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-230310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0660
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
511 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...Central/Southern KY...Central/Eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222110Z - 230310Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
gradually settle south and east through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Locally very heavy rainfall
rates are expected, and some additional flash flooding will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery and surface observations
show a very well-defined MCV and an attendant surface low along
the southwest KY/TN border region with some very heavy showers and
thunderstorms. All of this continues to advance generally off to
the east-southeast as a cold front from the mid-MS and lower OH
Valleys settles across the region. There is plenty of broken
shower and thunderstorm activity also out ahead of the cold front
across a large area of central and eastern TN where a convectively
induced outflow boundary continues to interact with a pool of
moderate instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to
2500 j/kg.

Over the next few hours, low pressure will be lifting advancing up
along the front as the overall boundary settles down to the
east-southeast. This will maintain the convective threat across a
large area of central/southern KY and central/eastern TN going
through the mid-evening hours, although gradually the instability
will become increasingly exhausted.

PWATs across the region are around 2.0 to 2.25 inches, and the
latest CIRA-LPW data sets again show pockets of concentrated
moisture up in the 500/300 mb layer which coupled with an already
very moist boundary layer will favor highly efficient rainfall
processes for enhanced rates. Within the areas of stronger
updrafts/convective cores, expect rainfall rates to exceed 2
inches/hr.

The latest hires model consensus suggests locally as much as an
additional 2 to 4 inches of rain through mid-evening, and
especially with some localized areas of repeating convection,
Based on the high short-term rainfall rates, and storm totals,
some additional flash flooding will be possible this evening.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38038407 38028358 37218347 36918323 36348311
            35928330 35578391 35278472 35188586 35118718
            35098816 35578829 36088775 36558795 36818818
            37068798 37418732 37578654 37748541 37778492



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