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ACUS11 KWNS 222005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222005
COZ000-WYZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...the Front Range and vicinity in Colorado and
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222005Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing across the higher terrain including
the Front Range in central/northern Colorado into southern Wyoming.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and
evening, but a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing across the higher terrain in
Colorado and Wyoming under an amplified upper level ridge over the
western CONUS that is centered on the Four Corners region. A weak
shortwave trough rotating over Wyoming and northern Colorado around
the upper high along with low-level easterly upslope flow and
insolation have initiated these thunderstorms. Mid-level
temperatures have cooled due to the shortwave trough and low-level
lapse rates will continue to steepen through the afternoon,
especially in cloud-free areas. With mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5
C/km and MLCAPE of 500-1000+ J/kg, large hail is possible,
especially while storms stay tied to the terrain, even with fairly
weak shear. Strong outflow winds are also possible, especially as
storms collapse.

Storms are expected to continue developing over the higher terrain
and slowly move south-southeast with new storms forming along
outflow boundaries and over the higher terrain after storms move
away. Storms are likely to persist into the evening. Given the
marginal severe threat for hail/wind, a severe thunderstorm watch is
unlikely to be issued.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

LAT...LON   40120470 39820467 39210468 38930512 38710583 38860627
            40190666 41070696 41900679 42410663 42460550 41590494
            40530475 40120470



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