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ACUS01 KWNS 230048
SWODY1
SPC AC 230047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will persist
this evening mainly over southern Arizona.

...Southern Arizona...

Thunderstorms that initiated over the mountains of southeast AZ are
moving westward, and other storms that developed over the Mogollon
Rim are moving southwest. These storms with consolidating outflows
will continue to produce occasional downburst winds this evening as
they move through southern AZ where deeply mixed boundary layers
with 40 F surface temperature/dewpoint spreads exist.

...Middle Atlantic region...

Multicell storms continue developing in warm sector from the
Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic region where MLCAPE ranges from
1500-2000 J/kg, and a belt of 30-35 kt winds exist in the 900-700 mb
layer. These storms will remain capable of producing a few strong to
damaging wind gusts through mid-evening, before a stabilizing
boundary layer contributes to a gradual weakening trend.

...Southeast Wyoming through central Colorado...

Storms moving off the higher terrain will remain capable of
downburst winds through mid-evening, followed by a gradual weakening
trend as the atmosphere stabilizes.

..Dial.. 07/23/2019

$$


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