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AWUS01 KWNH 230032
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-230405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0664
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...WV and western VA into central PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230030Z - 230405Z

SUMMARY...Convection tracking over areas that saw heavy rainfall
earlier today could pose a continued threat for flash flooding
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radars showed areas of convection tracking
eastward ahead of a frontal boundary extending from WV into the
NYC metro areas. The convection lies in an axis of 1000-1500 J/KG
of MLCAPE, generally across areas where the airmass was not
overturned by previous convection. A ribbon of deep moisture (with
precipitable water values near 2.00 inches) is nearly coincident
with the instability, and the moisture and instability continue to
support convective clusters from WV into western VA.

The GOES-16 clean IR loop showed bursts of closer cloud tops along
and just ahead of the front, signaling where new or deepening
convection lies. across WV, there is still a large area of
convection moving along the instability axis, resulting into
hourly rainfall rates near 2.00 inches. The most recent HRRR
suggests that this will continue for the next 2-3 hours, with the
heaviest rainfall occurring over areas that saw heavy rain earlier
today.

Further northeast across northern MD into eastern PA, the airmass
is somewhat overturned by earlier activity, but based on the
satellite trends, there are still enough pockets of deeper
moisture to support at least scattered convection. The most recent
HRRR indicated that local 2.00 inch rainfall amounts with the
newly generated storms are possible from eastern WV into east
central PA, and this is being reflected by radar trends just ahead
of the front.

Short term training along the front poses the greatest flash flood
threat, though it is not clear just how widespread the threat will
ultimately be. However, given how vulnerable some locations have
become due to earlier heavy rain, the threat of flash flooding
will persist through the frontal passage. '

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   40867604 40867524 40627513 40617513 40347540
            40167562 38787771 37118050 36658130 36398196
            36378257 36658322 37238334 37808307 38168253
            38278235 38598159 39177962 39597902 40047848
            40397760


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