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AWUS01 KWNH 222350
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230350-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0663
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...South central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222350Z - 230350Z

SUMMARY....Bands of storms moving across south central AZ during
the evening could result in hourly rainfall rates near 1.50
inches, posing a flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-17 clean IR loop showed very cold cloud tops
(with cloud top temperatures near -80 C) associated with storms
moving across south central AZ late this afternoon. The storms are
forming in an axis of 1000-1500 J/KG of MUCAPE, as the low level
inhibition has remained mostly intact this afternoon. The storms
are moving westward with the mid level flow, with ridging in place
over the Four Corners area.

The monsoonal moisture around the mid level ridge has increased
precipitable water values to 1.50 inches across much of south
central and southwest AZ, and the storms are tapping the deeper
moisture. The KEMX radar showed hourly rainfall rates near 1.50
inches with the storms over Santa Cruz county, as well as just
north of downtown Tuscon. Above the inverted V signature in the
lower levels of the profile, HRRR model soundings showed a fairly
moist column through 300 mb, suggesting that the warm cloud depth
are increasing with time. This could result in scattered storms
becoming efficient rainfall makers, and the most recent HRRR runs
suggest that hourly rainfall rates could remain near 1.50 inches
into the evening.

With capping in place, it is unclear just how expansive the
convective coverage will attain. Much of the high resolution
guidance (including the moist recent HRRR runs) suggest that the
activity remains scattered, which is plausible given the capping
in place. The instability is expected to remain in place through
at least 23/06z, which could support at least an isolated flash
flood threat. However, given the potential for cell mergers and
short term training in the deep moisture plume, flash flooding is
considered possible through the evening hours.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   32651122 32361041 31901011 31210979 31161056
            31271096 31781158 32261177


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