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ACUS02 KWNS 221707
SWODY2
SPC AC 221706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous thunderstorms with a few damaging wind gusts are possible
Tuesday mainly across the central and eastern Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will be centered over the Four Corners states, with a
ridge extending north across WY and MT. Northern portions of this
ridge will break down Tuesday night as a shortwave trough moves
across ID and MT, and this feature will also support thunderstorms
through evening.

To the east, a deep upper trough will approach the Appalachians with
cooling aloft and substantial southerly winds. A cold front will
slowly move across eastern VA and the Carolinas, where a moist and
unstable air mass will support numerous daytime thunderstorms, some
producing strong wind gusts.

...Eastern NC/SC and extreme southeast VA...
A very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints will exist ahead of
the cold front, and heating will lead to MUCAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg prior to frontal passage. Substantial lift along the front will
lead to early afternoon development, with numerous storms expected
from southeast VA across the Carolinas. Storms may be cellular at
first, but deep-layer shear and mean winds will be oriented parallel
to the front. The result should be merging outflows, with linear
structures advancing east throughout the day. Shear will be weak,
but numerous storms with substantial outflow will create
opportunities for marginally severe but locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest into central MT...
Batches of storms are likely to develop near the ID/MT border during
the afternoon with the upper disturbance which will eventually
flatten the ridge. A steep lapse rate environment will exist, with
generally weak winds below 700 mb. This may support small hail and
gusty winds, but severe weather is generally not anticipated as
storms continue into central MT through evening.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Jewell.. 07/22/2019

$$


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