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ACUS01 KWNS 221637
SWODY1
SPC AC 221635

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England, as well as the
Tennessee Valley, this afternoon to early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England...
Additional amplification of the large-scale trough over the eastern
CONUS will contribute to a slight cooling of mid-level temperatures
and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft coincident with a
slow-southeastward-moving front across the central Appalachians
toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

The coverage of yesterday's storms across most of this region has
impacted thermodynamic profiles, with surface temperatures/dewpoints
running at least several degrees lower than this time (late
morning/midday) yesterday. As noted in the prior Outlook discussion,
12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and
Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower
compared to 12Z yesterday and have weaker mid-level lapse rates.

That said, moisture will steadily recover and ample insolation is
noted at midday across the Mid-Atlantic in the lee of the
Appalachians, with MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg possible (highest near
the coast). As compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger wind
profiles between 2-6km AGL will also be a factor for individual
storm longevity/organized storms. Multicells will be common and the
possibility exists for a few transient supercells from far southern
New York/northern New Jersey into southern New England. Damaging
winds will be the most common risk through the afternoon into early
evening.

...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley...
A moist air mass (70-75F surface dewpoints) remains ahead of a
southeastward-moving cold front. As morning cloud cover thins,
increasing cumuliform/thunderstorm development are expected this
afternoon, particularly downstream of a pair of residual MCVs. Wet
microbursts yielding localized wind damage will be the main risk.

While weak vertical shear will tend to limit overall organization
and risk magnitude, a somewhat more focused/organized severe risk
may exist this afternoon into early evening across western/middle
Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky and perhaps northern portions
of Mississippi/Alabama. Enhanced winds are noted with the MCV near
the Mississippi River, with 30-40 kt west-southwesterly winds
between 4-6 km in recent (16Z) Paducah, KY WFO-88D VWP data.

...Central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and remain
largely confined to the higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado/New
Mexico, although a few storms could drift into the immediately
adjacent High Plains. A belt of modest mid-level north/northwesterly
flow aloft will persist around the Four Corners/southern Rockies
upper ridge, yielding some threat for marginally severe hail/wind.

...Southeast/south-central Arizona...
On the southern periphery of the south-central Rockies-centered
upper ridge, 15-20 kt mid-level easterlies may help loosely organize
scattered thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain during
the late afternoon and move toward the desert floor. Hot/deeply
mixed boundary layer will support vigorous downdrafts and the
possibility of severe-caliber winds and blowing dust late this
afternoon/early evening.

..Guyer/Nauslar.. 07/22/2019

$$


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