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AWUS01 KWNH 221507
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0658
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1106 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Western/Southern KY...Northern
TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221500Z - 222100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very heavy
rainfall rates will tend to expand in coverage over the next 2 to
3 hours. Some flash flooding is expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery is showing
rapidly cooling convective tops over Todd, Logan, Butler and
Warren counties of south-central KY. Coinciding with this has been
a notable uptick in lightning as seen in GLM data sets. The
convection is focusing along a west/east instability axis within
relatively confluent low-level flow out ahead of an MCV advancing
toward the lower OH Valley.

Over the next few hours, the aforementioned MCV will tend to
provide at least a modest degree of forcing aloft which will work
in tandem with a boundary layer that will continue to destabilize
across the region given locally strong diurnal heating. MLCAPE
values will be rising to 1500 to 2000 j/kg over the next couple of
hours ahead of the convection, which will provide an environment
conducive for the activity to expand in coverage ahead of the MCV
from far southeast MO eastward across western and southern KY, and
probably areas of northern TN. Given the improving thermodynamic
environment, the activity will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall rates.

PWATs across the region are around 2.0 to 2.2 inches, and the
latest CIRA-LPW data sets shows pockets of concentrated moisture
up in the 500/300 mb layer which coupled with already high
dewpoints in the lower levels of the column will favor highly
efficient rainfall processes for enhanced rates. The rapidly
cooling cloud top trends in this environment suggest strong
convective forcing and the rainfall rates with some of these cells
are expected to reach over 3 inches/hr.

Hires model guidance from the 12Z cycle suggests pockets of as
much as 3 to 5 inches of rain going through 18Z given the
relatively slow movement of the activity and tendency for the
cells to align themselves parallel to the mean layer flow which
will foster some repeating of cell activity. This will favor a
likelihood for some areas of flash flooding going through the
early to mid-afternoon hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37388720 37358607 37338553 37288486 37178395
            36878364 36578380 36468408 36418449 36388538
            36378648 36348735 36258814 36108938 36148991
            36599008 37008951 37288833


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