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ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England this afternoon to
early evening.

...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England...
Ongoing scattered convection across the central Appalachians is
expected to persist and intensify towards midday as ample
boundary-layer heating occurs from the DE Valley south. However, 12Z
soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and Wilmington
OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower compared to
12Z yesterday, and have weaker mid-level lapse rates in the wake of
yesterday's extensive convective overturning. This in combination
with generally earlier storm development relative to peak late
afternoon heating should yield a more modestly unstable air mass
with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Weakening flow with height above
500 mb, especially with southwest extent, will result in a lack of
mid-level updraft rotation amid small hodographs. Nevertheless, an
increasingly broad swath of 30-40 kt 700-mb will support potential
for cold-pool dominated multicells capable of strong gusts producing
mainly tree damage.

...Mid-South and TN Valley...
Scattered thunderstorms will breakout this afternoon downstream of a
pair of MCVs drifting along a southeast-moving cold front. Vertical
shear across the region will be weak with only minor MCV
enhancement. Wet microbursts yielding localized wind damage should
be the main hazard.

...Southern Rockies...
Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to the higher terrain, a few
of which could drift into the adjacent High Plains. A belt of modest
mid-level north/northwesterlies will persist around the Four Corners
anticyclone, yielding some threat for marginally severe hail/wind.

...Southeast AZ...
15-20 kt mid-level easterlies may help loosely organize scattered
thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain during the late
afternoon. Deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a
risk of isolated severe wind gusts until just after dusk.

..Grams/Gleason.. 07/22/2019

$$


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