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AWUS01 KWNH 220953
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0657
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
553 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...Southern Missouri, Southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220952Z - 221552Z

Summary...An MCV interacting with a stationary boundary will
continue convection with heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates will
likely gradually decrease through the morning, but an additional
1-3" of rainfall may occur on top of areas that have already
received radar estimated 2-4" of rainfall tonight. This will lead
to rapid runoff on the saturated soils, with additional flash
flooding likely.

Discussion...Radar imagery early this morning shows a pronounced
spin of an MCV moving eastward across central Missouri. This
feature is moving along a nearly stationary front that is aligned
west to east across southern Missouri and into southern Illinois.
Despite modest moist transport on a weak LLJ, enough instability
persists south of the boundary that Mu-cape remains near 2000 J/kg
with PWATs approaching 2 inches even in the pre-convective
environment.

The forcing associated with the MCV impinging on this
thermodynamically favorable environment will allow heavy rainfall
to persist, even as convective elements likely dwindle through the
morning. Estimated rainfall rates from KSGF WSR-88D have shown a
gradual decrease, but subtle rate increases are noted further east
towards KLSX which is in the more favorable diffluent regime ahead
of the MCV. Low-level convergence along the boundary combined with
the MCV will persist heavy rain rates, especially south and east
of the current MCV position, and 06Z HREF neighborhood
probabilities are as high as 60% for 3 inches in the next few
hours before waning by mid-morning. FFG values for 1-hr and 3-hr
have dropped due to the overnight rainfall, and are as low as
2"/3hrs across portions of southern Missouri.

CAMs, including the last 3 runs of the HRRR, show a strong signal
for widespread 1-3" of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts as
high as 5" possible. This will be most likely where training can
occur along the front and ahead of the MCV due to boundary
parallel 0-6km winds and Corfidi vectors, despite speeds of 10-20
kts. Due to this antecedent rainfall to pre-condition the soils,
and the likelihood of continued heavy rain due to mesoscale
forcing and the favorable thermodynamics, flash flooding is likely
across this area.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38998729 38688681 38108668 37318719 36618870
            36409042 36739164 37469209 38179188 38639138
            38869052 38788993 38918946 38888877 38988788



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