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ACUS48 KWNS 220850
SWOD48
SPC AC 220848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A compact upper low will move southeast from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
provinces on Thursday/Day 4, and thunderstorms are possible in
advance of an associated cold front across portions of the northern
Plains/upper Midwest.  At this time, enough uncertainty remains
regarding the position of the upper low and associated surface
features, degree of destabilization and potential influence of an
EML, to preclude 15 percent severe probabilities with this outlook.

Beyond Day 4, some weakening of the southwest U.S. upper-level high
pressure takes place as a belt of stronger WNW flow remains across
the northern tier of states.  Some potential may exist for organized
severe storms on one or more days during this time frame with
embedded impulses, however overall daily probabilities appear to be
below the threshold for areal delineation.

..Bunting.. 07/22/2019


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