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FOUS30 KWBC 220815
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...Lower Mississippi Valley...Tennessee Valley...Central
Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic...
An expansive slight and moderate risk area was maintained this
period along and ahead of the surface cold front forecast to push
east and southeast from the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley
into the Lower Mississippi Valley...Central Appalachians and Mid
Atlantic.   There is a strong model signal for the potential for
widespread heavy precipitation along and ahead of this front where
pw values are forecast to remain 1.5 to2+ standard deviations
above the mean.  The associated amplifying mid to upper level trof
will also provide favorable right entrance region jet dynamics
along the boundary during the first half of the upcoming day 1
time period.  The primary change from the previous outlook was to
expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid
Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern
KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area.  This was to cover where the
model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values.
These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood
probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50
to 80% for 3".

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains,,
Additional widespread scattered convection likely across the
Southern High Plains into portions of the Southwest this period.
Post frontal low level easterly flow will keep pw values well
above average....1.5 to 2+ standard deviations above the mean from
southeast Arizona...across much of New Mexico and into portions of
Southwest Texas.  While model guidance is showing a lot of
variability model to model with qpf details...there is a signal
for heavy to locally excessive amounts.  Neighborhood
probabilities from the href show a large region of high
probabilities of 1"+ amounts across the above mentioned
regions...with much of this region having probabilities over 50%.
For higher precip thresholds...the areal extent of higher
probabilities decreases significantly. However...there are still
areas of 50%+ probabilities of 2"+ totals and a few 20-45% for 3"+
amounts.  Confidence is low with the placement of the probability
maxima...but there is a signal for potentially very heavy amounts.
 The marginal risk area was expanded from the previous issuance to
cover the above mentioned probabilities for 1, 2 and 3"+ amounts.

Oravec



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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