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ACUS03 KWNS 220728
SWODY3
SPC AC 220727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across portions of
the northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
The eastern U.S. upper trough will continue east towards the
mid-Atlantic/northeast coast on Wednesday as upper-level high
pressure remains entrenched over the southwest states.  A belt of
stronger mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into
the northern Plains, and a pronounced shortwave trough will move
east across the Canadian Rockies along the international border.  A
surface frontal boundary extending from northern FL west through
south TX will move little, while a cold front, initially across the
northern Rockies, moves east into the northern Plains Wednesday
night.

...Northern Plains...
The large-scale ridge is forecast to flatten somewhat with the
approach of the Pacific Northwest upper trough and monsoon impulses
rotating around the upper-level anticyclone.  Weak/pockets of
moderate instability should develop by afternoon along a pre-frontal
trough as diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dew points takes
place.  Thunderstorms may develop along the pre-frontal trough and
the approaching cold front, though an expanding EML and increasing
CINH may limit overall coverage.  Adequate shear (35-40 kts) will be
in place for updraft organization and support at least some risk for
severe storms.

..Bunting.. 07/22/2019

$$


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