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ACUS02 KWNS 220555
SWODY2
SPC AC 220554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be
possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions of the
Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly east across the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an expansive
anticyclone remains centered near the Four Corners region.  A
southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the
Delmarva peninsula across the central Gulf coast and south Texas by
Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and
lifts offshore along the front.  A very moist air mass will remain
in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew
points in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

...Southern/eastern NC and SC...
Cloud cover will likely be substantial across the mid-Atlantic
region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary given the very moist
air mass characterized by PW values of around 2 inches.  The
southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow with the amplifying
upper trough will reside in this area and contribute to sufficient
shear for organized storms, especially where localized breaks in the
clouds augment surface-based instability.  Clusters of thunderstorms
should develop by early to mid afternoon with a risk for damaging
downburst winds.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Bunting.. 07/22/2019

$$


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