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ACUS01 KWNS 220549
SWODY1
SPC AC 220547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected
from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England today.

...Synopsis...
The shortwave trough currently moving through the Upper Midwest will
continue eastward across the Upper Great Lakes/Lower OH Valley
today, reaching the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes by early
Tuesday morning.  At the same time, upper ridging centered over the
Four Corners will build northward. The evolution of these features
will result in a highly amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS
trough pattern by the end of the period.

At the surface, a cold front currently extends from northwest OK
northeastward across southern MO through the central OH Valley into
central PA. Western portion of this front is expected to continue
progressing southward/southeastward. Eastern portions of this front
are also expected to move southward/southeastward, although with
slowly forward progress. By early Tuesday morning, this front is
expected to extend from the TX Hill Country eastward across the
Lower MS Valley and then northeastward into the northern
Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
Dewpoints in the low 70s are expected to be in place from northern
VA/Delmarva Peninsula into southern New England ahead of the
approaching cold front. Expectation is for showers and thunderstorms
along the front to gradually increase in strength and coverage as
they encounter this more moist and unstable air mass. In addition to
this more favorable low-level moisture, a deepening surface low
along the front will help strengthen surface convergence while the
approaching shortwave trough provides modest large-scale forcing for
ascent. The strongest vertical shear will be displaced north of the
frontal zone, but vertical shear along the front is still expected
to be strong enough for occasional updraft organization. A
predominantly linear, multicell mode is anticipated with damaging
wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Some isolated hail is also
possible. A non-zero tornado threat also exists, particularly near
the surface low and any backed surface winds.

...Mid-South through the TN Valley...
Ongoing convective cluster across MO is expected to gradually drift
southeastward this morning, eventually contributing to thunderstorm
development across the Mid-South as it encounters a moist and
diurnally destabilizing air mass. Vertical shear across the region
will be weak but some localized enhancement of the low/mid-level
flow is possible near the MCV. Strength of the MCV will dictate the
severe coverage. Current expectation is for a few damaging wind
gusts within the strongest storms.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of
the southern and central High Plains this afternoon. While the air
mass across the Front Range is not expected to be as unstable as the
past few days, a severe storm or two is still possible, particularly
across the central High Plains where stronger upper flow will result
in more favorable vertical shear.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/22/2019

$$


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