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AWUS01 KWNH 220422
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-221015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0656
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1221 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...Southern and Central Missoui, extreme NE Oklhaoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220415Z - 221015Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across Southern
Missouri tonight in the vicinity of a stationary front and outflow
boundary. Flash flooding will be possible as storms train along
these boundaries, producing 1-3" of rainfall, with isolated
amounts of 5" possible.

Discussion...A stationary boundary was analyzed draped NW to SE
across Missouri, with convection blossoming along and south of the
boundary. These thunderstorms were developing in a very unstable
airmass characterized by MUCape of over 2000 J/kg, and PWATs
analyzed by the 03Z RAP to be 1.6 to 1.9 inches, 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above the climatological mean. This airmass was being
fueled by a 20 kt LLJ impinging on the front from the SW,
transporting higher moisture and re-supplying instability despite
nocturnal cooling. In addition to the low-level convergence along
the front evident in the 925-850mb wind fields, convergence was
also providing ascent along convective outflows emerging from KS,
and ahead of an MCV noted in reflectivity on the KEAX WSR-88D.

Recent rain rates have been estimated as high as 2"/hr from KSGF,
and HREF neighborhood probabilities show a better than 60% chance
of 1"/hr, and 30% chance for 2"/hr, continuing through early
morning. This leads to exceedance probabilities of more than 50%
for 3-hr FFG, which is significant since 3-hr FFG across much of
the discussion area is greater than 3". As outflows continue to
progress southeastward from Kansas, and new development occurs
along the stationary front, cell clusters will likely merge which
may enhance rain rates even above 2"/hr. Additionally, training of
cells is likely as noted by Corfidi vectors parallel to the mean
cloud layer wind, and it is possible that due to slow storm
motions of 5-10 kts and some interaction/training of storm
clusters, rainfall could approach 5" in some areas.

This is shown by several of the high-res CAMs, and the last 3 runs
of the HRRR have shown an upward trend in both basin average QPF,
as well as maximum rainfall. The highest rainfall may occur in the
vicinity of the MCV where training and merging may coincide, but
much of this discussion area has potential to see excessive
rainfall overnight. Despite the good model consensus for heavy
rainfall, will leave the flash flooding as possible instead of
likely due to the dry antecedent conditions west of the Mark Twain
National Forest. Should the heavy rain train further east towards
the Bootheel of MO, flash flooding may develop more rapidly due to
14-day rainfall that is 200% of normal.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39099402 39019302 38919250 38709183 38459106
            38269049 38018987 37818944 37588909 37468907
            37138902 36908911 36708948 36689027 36779114
            36869214 36899277 36899316 36789354 36649382
            36479407 36299454 36249481 36249508 36319546
            36449567 36619578 36849577 37069554 37269524
            37569494 38139475 38389476 38899454


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