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ACUS11 KWNS 212238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212237
COZ000-NMZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...eastern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212237Z - 220000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms will be possible this evening
across eastern CO. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
the main concern before storms diminish later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along higher terrain late
this afternoon in moist, upslope low level flow. Surface dewpoints
east of the higher terrain are generally in the upper 50s to low
60s, with steep midlevel lapse rates indicated by 22z mesoanalysis.
This is resulting in generally 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast RAP
soundings suggest capping is likely still an issue, with a weak EML
noted around 700 mb. Billow-like CU field across eastern CO supports
this notion that at least some of the region is under the influence
of a capping inversion. Elsewhere, some deepening to the CU has been
noted closer to the higher terrain. Effective shear across the
region is weak, with 20-30 kt at best per regional VWP data.
Altogether, this environment will support a mix of elevated and
surface-based storms that may be briefly intense. Marginally severe
hail with be the main concern, but some gusty winds also will be
possible. In the absence of stronger forcing for ascent and more
favorable shear, storms should gradually diminish with eastward
extent and loss of daytime heating. A watch is not expected this
evening.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40940537 40900446 40670362 40070310 39130264 38100255
            37490265 37090297 36960370 37090463 37130493 37430512
            38390548 40820578 40940537



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