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Message   COD Weather Processor    wx-storm   MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1563   July 21, 2019
 10:07 PM *  

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ACUS11 KWNS 212207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212207
DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-212330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia...and
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212207Z - 212330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong updrafts expected through
the evening. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have formed along multiple boundaries in
a hot and moist environment in the Mid Atlantic. Expect additional
storms to develop on these boundaries through the evening. Weak flow
(<20 kts) in the lowest 10 km (per LWX VWP) will limit a threat for
sustained updrafts. Some strong downdrafts are possible considering
the hot conditions and high DCAPE (1200-1300 J/kg) across the
region. These pulse type storms may lead to localized strong surface
winds where thunderstorm cores collapse, but the lack of any storm
organization precludes the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

The corridor with the greatest threat for stronger updraft/downdraft
pairs will likely be in northern Virginia/central Maryland where
instability is maximized and numerous outflow boundaries are
expected to collide within the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Bentley.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38417994 39677956 39747823 39857746 39797662 39757585
            39317564 38787569 38317618 38117658 38097715 38217855
            38417994



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