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AWUS01 KWNH 212146
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-220345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0651
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio Valley to Central Appalachians to
Northern Shenandoah Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212145Z - 220345Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to develop along a
stationary front across northeast Ohio and west-central
Pennsylvania as well as across eastern West Virginia and the
northern Shenandoah Valley. Areas in between over western
Maryland/northern West Virginia/southwest Pennsylvania are likely
to see organized thunderstorms this evening. Heavy rain rates and
the potential for repeating cells, particularly along the station
front, could possibly lead to continued flash flooding.

Discussion...A stationary front is across northern OH and
north-central PA. Convergence along this front has allowed heavy
thunderstorms with localized rain rates exceeding two inches per
hour per KCLE and KPBZ. Broad southwesterly flow around high
pressure centered over the FL panhandle and ahead of a shortwave
trough over IA/MO is maintaining moisture across this area with PW
of 1.8 to 2 inches spreading toward southwest PA per 20Z GPS
moisture data. Uninhibited SBCAPE of 2500 to 3000 J/Kg is along
the stationary front and over PA down to the Shenandoah Valley
with 1500 to 2500 J/Kg and some inhibition from earlier activity
across WV and southeast OH. Regional radars and GOES-16 10.3 IR
imagery depict upward growth the two main thunderstorm lines.

Outflow boundaries are over east-central OH and east-central WV.
The amply instability between the outflow and stationary front
suggest further development through the evening. Three hourly
flash flood guidance is generally 1.5 to 2.5 inches in this area
despite generally below normal rainfall over the past week. This
is most at risk of being exceeded along the stationary front and
where convergence with existing outflow boundaries occurs.
Therefore, isolated flash flooding is possible in the alerted area.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41008211 40958099 40978042 40937862 40997810
            40917722 39697750 38587841 38647952 38648010
            38698087 39468118 40068183 40378291 40648263
            40998253


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