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AWUS01 KWNH 212031
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-220229-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0650
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Northern Indiana into Northwest Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212029Z - 220229Z

Summary...A broken line of heavy thunderstorms will continue to
develop ahead of a surface low and along a nearly stationary front
and push east across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio through
this evening. Heavy rain rates in the warm area ahead of a surface
low is likely to continue causing localized flash flooding.

Discussion...A surface low along a cold front spanning the eastern
CONUS has moved into IN per a 20Z surface analysis. Convergent
cyclonic flow ahead of the low is allowing moisture pooling with
PW over 2 inches in NW IN per 19Z GPS moisture data. Plenty of
instability is ahead of this wave from the recent heat wave (with
SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/Kg) over northern IN and NW OH. Regional
radars and GOES-16 10.3 IR imagery depict upward growth of
organizing thunderstorms. Also of note is an outflow boundary
shifting north over west-central OH per KILN from prior SW OH
convective storms. Therefore the highlighted flash flood threat
through this evening is bound just ahead of the low, along the
stationary front just south of the MI border, and an area just
north of the existing outflow boundary location.

This low and frontal system will continue to slowly shift
east-southeast ahead of the weak mid-level shortwave trough
depicted well in the mid-level water vapor channel from GOES-16
which is ahead of the main trough axis over North Dakota. Ahead of
the low/cold front, expect scattered thunderstorms with hourly
rain rates of 1.5 to 2 inches per hour to continue (these rates
have been observed by KIWX over the past hour). Three hour flash
flood guidance increases over to around 3 inches northern IN
before decreasing to 1.5 to 2.5 inches over northwest OH. This
matches the rainfall pattern over the past week. Given the
organizing nature of the thunderstorm complex, the presence of the
low and the boundary to the north, flash flood is likely,
particularly where storms can repeat.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41708625 41588485 41408355 41218280 40938259
            40498299 40118474 40198696 40978693 41328675



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