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ACUS01 KWNS 211955
SWODY1
SPC AC 211954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely area for severe thunderstorms is across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri from late this afternoon through
mid-evening. Severe wind gusts are expected, along with severe hail
and possibly a tornado or two.

...DISCUSSION...
No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.

..Broyles.. 07/21/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019/

...Central/eastern Kansas and western/southern Missouri...
An MCV across south-central Nebraska and far north-central Kansas at
midday will move east-southeastward toward northern/western Missouri
through this evening. A decayed MCS across the Missouri Valley has
effectively augmented/shunted a surface boundary southward with
development expected near it later today. As the boundary layer
heats and destabilizes, intensifying thunderstorm development is
most likely to initially occur by around mid-afternoon across
northeast Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska near a triple
point to the northeast of a weak surface low.

Deep-layer shear should generally remain modest at around 25-35 kt
yielding predominately multicell clusters, although a few initial
supercells are possible. Severe hail is possible with initial
updrafts, and a tornado or two is also possible near/just east of
the surface cyclone/related MCV track. However, strong to severe
wind gusts will probably be the main risk with a modest-speed MCS
tracking southeastward into southeast Kansas and western Missouri
into this evening.

...Illinois/Indiana to the Upper Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity this
afternoon particularly near/just south of a south-southeastward
advancing cold front and near/east of a surface low and MCV across
Illinois and Indiana. A moist and moderately/strongly unstable air
mass will support the possibility of locally damaging winds,
although weak deep-layer shear and modest mid-level lapse rates
should temper the overall potential for organized severe. For
additional short-term details regarding the Upper Ohio Valley, see
Mesoscale Discussion 1560.

...Maine...
The potential for a couple of severe thunderstorms will persist
through the early part of the afternoon across Downeast Maine with
severe hail/wind possible.

...High Plains...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Black Hills
southward to the Raton Mesa from mid/late afternoon into this
evening. Deep-layer shear will generally be modest, except in the
Black Hills vicinity where mid-level northwesterlies will be
stronger in association with a shortwave trough moving east across
North Dakota. Isolated severe hail and severe-caliber wind gusts
will be possible.

$$


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