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AWUS01 KWNH 220128
FFGMPD
COZ000-220530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0654
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
927 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Eastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220130Z - 220530Z

Summary...Short term training or cell mergers with slow moving
storms over eastern CO could result in a flash flood threat this
evening.

Discussion...GOES-16 clean IR loop showed slowly cooling tops
associated with storms developing in an axis of 2000 J/KG of
MLCAPE (based on the 22/00z DNR sounding). Across northeast CO,
storm motions have been fairly erratic, as the cells are
developing underneath the northern end of the mid level ridge in
place. The DNR sounding showed dry air in the lower and mid level,
with an inverted V profile. This has resulted in storms that are
mostly hail/outflow driven.

A 15 knot low level easterly flow continues to transport 1.00/1.25
inch precipitable water air across eastern CO from the Central
Plains, in the wake of a cold front over the northern TX
Panhandle. The increasing low level flow is expected to allow the
column to moisten with time over much of northern and central CO.

The combination of increasing moisture and slow and erratic storm
motions could allow hourly rainfall rates to approach 1.50 inches
on the Front Range (per the most recent HRRR run). Though the
coverage is scattered, rainfall rates this high could pose a flash
flood threat, especially where cell mergers or short term training
occurs.

Over southeast CO, the convective initiation occurred later, as
inhibition here was slower to erode than northeast CO. The GOES-16
IR loop showed that these later developing storms with colder
cloud tops, indicating rapid intensification. Like the storms over
northeast CO, these storms are mainly hail/wind driven, and storm
motions are slow and erratic due to weak mid level flow. The most
recent HRRR runs indicated the potential for local 2.00/3.00 inch
rainfall amounts through 22/05z, where locally heavy rainfall
occurred within the last 24 hours.

The storm coverage across southeast CO may be less than northeast
CO (especially closer to the Front Range), but cell interactions
in the deepening moisture still poses a flash flood threat into
the evening hours.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40650554 40420376 37450277 37110381 37830511
            39910575 40260582


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