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AWUS01 KWNH 220110
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-220715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0653
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...SE Illinois, S Indiana, N Kentucky, SW Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220115Z - 220715Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing along a pre-frontal trough and
convective outflows will move slowly through the evening. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely as the convection pushes into a highly
unstable atmosphere. The slow storm motion in an anomalously moist
column will create heavy rainfall which may accumulate to 1-3",
and flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms blossoming along a low-level
convergence axis and residual convective outflows will continue to
strengthen through the next several hours. MUCape south of the
primary convergence axis is analyzed by the 00Z RAP to be above
3000 J/kg, and this is allowing for thunderstorms to strengthen as
noted by cooling cloud tops on GOES-16 IR imagery, as well as an
uptick in 5-min ENI lightning. Radar estimated rainfall rates from
KVNX have reached as high as 2.5"/hr, and although some of this
may be hail contaminated as noted by normalized CAPE over 0.2,
there has been observed rainfall in the last hour of over 1.5".
With PWATs near 2 inches, the thermodynamic environment will
remain favorable for heavy rainfall as clusters of thunderstorms
drop slowly south-southeastward.

Although the organized convection is likely to move progressively
to the southeast, there appears to be an increasing signal for
backbuilding of echoes as noted by Corfidi vectors becoming less
than 5 kts and aligned anti-parallel to the 0-6km mean wind into
Kentucky. This suggests that storms will continually regenerate as
echoes try to move to the northeast around 10 kts in response to
the modest SW LLJ promoting persistent instability. HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr rain rates remain above 40%
for much of this MPD valid time, and although local FFG is high,
2.5-3.5"/3hrs, outside of N/NE KY and SW OH, HREFv2 probabilities
for 6-hr exceeding the 5-yr ARI are 30-50% across this area.

Despite waning instability over the next few hours, the modest LLJ
impinging into the region should persist convective growth and may
even drive PWATs over 2" in the next few hours. This could locally
enhance the FF threat, and is reflected by an increase in coverage
and intensity of convection in the recent simulated reflectivity
from the HRRR. The best chance for flash flooding will be across
urban areas or any sensitive terrain, as well as where any
backbuilding can prolong the duration of heavy rainfall.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40068344 39928324 39598293 39108279 38588289
            38178303 37928353 37658473 37398587 37228693
            37058772 36988838 36848908 36848920 36968928
            37238953 37608952 37978910 38148839 38528715
            38988588 39398507 39788441 39988390


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