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AWUS01 KWNH 212357
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0652
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Eastern KS into southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220000Z - 220400Z

Summary...Storms or clusters of storms developing in a high
moisture environment near a stationary boundary could pose a flash
flood threat through the evening hours.

Discussion...The GOES_16 visible loop showed storms developing
rapidly across portions of eastern KS, where the inhibition has
finally been eroded. The storms are forming in an axis of 3000
J/KG of MLCAPE, south of a frontal boundary extending across
southeast KS into central MO, as an old MCV from convection this
morning across NE tracks to the east. Thus far, the storms have
been mainly hail and outflow dominated, as HRRR soundings showed
the presence of dry air in the mid levels, with the KTWX radar
indicating hourly rainfall rates near 1.25 inches over Coffey and
northern Butler counties.

Lift associated with the MCV should allow the convective coverage
to increase this evening, as clusters of storms (or possibly a
small MCS) track southeast with the mid level flow. While the
storms are expected to remain progressive, there could be some
training of cells on the southwest edge of the convective clusters
or MCS before 22/04z moving across southeast KS and southwest MO.
Training in the deep moisture plume in place (with precipitable
water values between two and three standard deviations above the
mean) could result in hourly rainfall rates near 2.00 inches.

The most recent HRRR run showed the potential for local 3.00/4.00
inch rainfall amounts through 22/04z over southeast KS, where the
best potential for training is expected. These values are in line
with much of the remainder of the available high resolution
guidance, though the convection is developing more quickly than
guidance indicates. This could suggest that the rainfall amounts
may  be too high, given the progressive nature of the convection.

Three hour flash flood guidance values are generally between three
and four inches across much of eastern KS into southwest MO, as it
has been fairly dry for the past seven days. Training would likely
be required for the initiation of flash flooding, so at this
point, flash flooding is considered possible. The threat could
extend beyond 22/04z for portions of southeast KS/southwest MO as
the convection becomes better organized and continues to move
southeast.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39059560 38929470 37949336 36679324 36829482
            37299607 37309609 37599639 38179675 38839643



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