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ACUS11 KWNS 211757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211756
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Illinois...Indiana...Western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211756Z - 212000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous this
afternoon over eastern Illinois, much of Indiana, and western Ohio.
A few of the storms may produce gusty/damaging winds and small hail.
A watch appears unlikely, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to form over eastern IL along
a weak cold front.  Others storms are ongoing near and southwest of
Chicago - in vicinity of a weak surface low/MCV and warm frontal
zone.  The air mass to the east of the activity has become very
unstable with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and temperatures
warming into the lower 90s yielding MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg.
Continued strong heating in this area will steepen low level lapse
rates and pose a risk of a few gusty/damaging wind gusts in the
stronger cells.  The primary mitigating factor to a more robust
severe threat is the weak mid-tropospheric winds, which will limit
vertical shear and strength of steering flow.  Activity is expected
to remain multicell, disorganized, and rather chaotic through the
afternoon.  Nevertheless, given the approaching MCV in IL and degree
of instability, trends will be monitored in this area.

..Hart/Guyer.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39538848 41008820 41678618 40038410 38828547 39538848



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