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AWUS01 KWNH 211727
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-212124-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0649
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Illinois into Northwest Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211724Z - 212124Z

Summary...Scattered heavy thunderstorms will continue to develop
over northeast Illinois (south of Chicago) early this afternoon
before shifting east into northwest Indiana. Heavy rainfall rates
in this warm area ahead of a surface low may cause localized flash
flooding.

Discussion...A surface low along a cold front spanning the eastern
CONUS is over north-central IL as of 15Z. Cyclonic convergent flow
just ahead of the low is allowing moisture pooling (with PW near 2
inches) along with an instability gradient (SBCAPE of 2000-3000
J/Kg) over northeast IL just south of Chicago. Regional radars and
GOES-16 10.3 IR imagery are picking up rapid thunderstorm
development over this area.

This low and frontal system will continue to slowly shift
southeast as the main trough axis approaches from the northern
Plains later today. Until then, expect scattered thunderstorms
with hourly rain rates around 1.5 inches per hour (which is
currently observed by KLOT) and possibly up to 2 inches per hour.
Given low one hour flash flood guidance of 1.5 to 2 inches
(despite near normal rain for the past week in this area) there is
a flash flood threat, particularly where storms can repeat.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41658650 40928651 40618689 40488780 40578833
            40738871 41018875 41248863 41298843 41468780
            41598727


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