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ACUS02 KWNS 211726
SWODY2
SPC AC 211725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage threat will be possible
on Monday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A few marginally severe
wind gusts are also possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into
the central Appalachians.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region on
Monday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the
Mid-Atlantic states. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across the central Appalachians with a moist airmass in
place south of the front. Surface dewpoints should be in the lower
70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability
ahead of the front by late morning. Convection is first expected to
initiate in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians around
midday. Other storms should develop during the afternoon eastward
along the front across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. NAM forecast
soundings along this part of the front at 21Z on Monday have 0-6 km
shear in the 40 to 50 kt range and show very steep low-level lapse
rates suggesting severe storms will be possible. The problem is that
the overlap between the strongest instability and deep-layer shear
is forecast be narrow. Cells that initiate right along the front and
move parallel to the boundary may have potential for damaging wind
gusts and hail. Although the threat area is small, the models are in
reasonable agreement and enough potential exists in the Mid-Atlantic
to add a small slight risk area from northern Maryland into New
Jersey. The slight risk is oriented along the forecast position of
the front during the afternoon.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes and
mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to advance southward into Arkansas, far southeast Missouri
and Kentucky. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s F should result a corridor of instability by midday.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
along the front, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop
during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear should be relatively
weak, steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for marginally
severe wind gusts. The potential should be greatest with cells
develop within the strongest instability.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 07/21/2019

$$


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