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AWUS01 KWNH 211606
FFGMPD
MSZ000-212004-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0648
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...North-Central Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211604Z - 212004Z

Summary...Particularly heavy rain is expected to continue across
north-central Mississippi through the early afternoon. Slow storm
motions is expected to enable further flash flooding.

Discussion...Convergence along an existing boundary over
north-central MS is causing lift in an area with 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE.
This convective growth is bring pushed by a northeast 850 to 300mb
mean flow around 10kt with low level convergence from a westerly
flow around 10kt at 850mb. This is in an environment with PW
exceeding 2.2 inches and a deep warm layer. Continued low level
inflow somewhat counter to the mean flow will keep storm motion
particularly slow in a particularly moist environment.

A recent northward drift in cell motion has shifted the heavy rain
from the areas in Holmes County that received 5 to 8 inches per
KDGX and KGWX estimates. However, new cell growth is still
observed on GOES-16 imagery northeast from Carroll County. Given
the particularly heavy rain rates up to around 2 inches, slow
storm motions, and 3hr flash flood guidance of 2 to 3 inches,
flash flooding is likely to continue into the afternoon.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   34258930 34098866 33308960 32919059 33459034
            34098986


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