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ACUS11 KWNS 211600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211600
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Northern West
Virginia...Western and Central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211600Z - 211830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts
of Ohio and spread eastward across the discussion area this
afternoon.  The strongest cells may produce gusty winds.  A watch is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a band of increasing
CU/TCU extending from northwest of Columbus to near Youngstown.
This activity is forming along a weak surface cold front that is
drifting slowly southward.  The air mass to the south of the
boundary has become very moist and unstable with dewpoints in the
mid 70s and temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.  Resulting MLCAPE
values exceed 2500 J/kg with little cap.  Present indications are
that scattered thunderstorms will develop and spread slowly eastward
across this region this afternoon.  Forecast soundings suggest
rather weak steering flow and limited vertical shear, which should
keep activity relative disorganized and chaotic.  However, steep
low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values may be sufficient for a
few damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells.

..Hart/Guyer.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40578338 41028126 40927889 40247838 39617956 39588130
            39758326 40118385 40578338



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