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ACUS01 KWNS 211253
SWODY1
SPC AC 211252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KS TO
WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely area for severe thunderstorms is across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri from around mid-afternoon to
mid-evening. A tornado or two, strong to isolated severe wind gusts,
and hail are possible.

...KS/MO...
A relatively broad swath of convective and stratiform rainfall is
ongoing across much of central/eastern NE into northern MO
downstream of an MCV centered on the northwest KS/southwest NE
border. This MCV and associated weak surface cyclone should be the
primary mechanism for early to mid-afternoon storm development in
north-central KS as a pocket of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg) becomes established to its southeast. Additional
updrafts should form south-southwest in time as convergence
increases along the surface cold front. Deep-layer shear should
generally remain modest at around 20-30 kt yielding predominately
multicell clusters. Severe hail is possible with initial updrafts,
but strong to severe wind gusts will probably be the main threat
with a modest-moving MCS tracking into southeast KS/western MO. A
tornado or two is also possible near/just east of the surface
cyclone/related MCV track.

...IL to the Upper OH Valley...
Isolated strong wind gusts yielding locally damaging winds will be
the primary hazard with scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms that form along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front
which currently extends across northern IL into northwest OH. Weak
deep-layer shear and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the
overall potential for organized severe.

...ME...
A supercell or two may persist across the central to far eastern
portion of the state through about midday. Favorable low to
upper-level speed shear as inferred by 12Z Caribou and Gray
soundings will support occasional updraft rotation. However, modest
buoyancy and weak low-level winds should marginalize the magnitude
of the severe hail/wind threats.

...High Plains...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Black Hills to
the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer shear will generally be modest, except in
the Black Hills vicinity where mid-level northwesterlies will be
stronger in association with a shortwave trough moving east across
ND. However, models are substantially different with the degree of
boundary-layer heating in this region, rendering low confidence in a
greater severe risk.

..Grams/Gleason.. 07/21/2019

$$


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