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ACUS11 KWNS 210945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210945
MEZ000-211215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Areas affected...Portions of ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210945Z - 211215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat may
develop with storms moving eastward this morning. Watch issuance is
unlikely, although trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A subtle vorticity maximum embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies is supporting isolated convective activity
across southern Quebec this morning. Even though low-level winds are
generally weak across ME, they quickly increase above 3 km per KCBW
VWP and RAP forecast soundings. Long, nearly straight hodographs
owing to mainly speed shear are supporting around 40-50 kt of
effective bulk shear in a narrow corridor over ME. This shear should
organize updrafts within cells approaching the international border
as of 0945Z, and a couple supercells appear possible. Still, the
primary limiting factor that will likely keep the overall severe
threat isolated is weak instability. Modest mid-level lapse rates
(5.8 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) observed on the 00Z sounding from
CAR and surface temperatures near the diurnal minimum should support
MLCAPE of no more than 500-1000 J/kg. This combination of weak
instability and strong shear may allow for isolated instances of
marginally severe hail and perhaps some strong/gusty winds with the
most robust storms. Current expectations are for the severe threat
to remain isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45417085 45587072 45787042 46087032 46337021 46216884
            45876741 44986747 44616796 44656892 44806997 45417085



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