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ACUS02 KWNS 210558
SWODY2
SPC AC 210557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England
Monday and Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Continued amplification of the mid/upper-level flow is expected
Monday with a pronounced trough extending from the Great Lakes
southward into the Tennessee Valley region.  An upper-level
anticyclone will remain anchored in the vicinity of the Four Corners
region throughout the day.  A surface cold front will extend
southwest from coastal sections of southern New England through the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley region and into central TX late Monday
afternoon.  A diffuse low will lift northeast along the front from
northern VA across coastal southern New England Monday night.

...Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic west to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley region...
Substantial cloud cover/on-going showers and thunderstorms are
expected Monday morning near the surface front across the OH/TN
Valley region.  Nevertheless, diurnal heating of a very moist air
mass south of the front (upper 60s to locally mid 70s dew points)
will result in moderate instability west of the Appalachians and
pockets of strong instability closer to the coast.  Modest
strengthening of low/mid-level wind fields will occur as the upper
trough amplifies, resulting in 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear near
the front from northern VA/eastern PA northeast into southern New
England, with 20-25 kts farther southwest.  Organized multicell
thunderstorms developing along the front and moving off the higher
terrain will have the potential to produce isolated damaging gusts
given steep low-level lapse rates and PW values in excess of 1.75
inches.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Bunting.. 07/21/2019

$$


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