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ACUS01 KWNS 210550
SWODY1
SPC AC 210549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and isolated hail
are possible from the central Plains eastward into the Lower
Missouri Valley today.

...Central Plains...Lower MO Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low near the CO/KS/OK border
intersection. A composite boundary/stationary front extends
northeastward from this low across KS to another low near the
KS/NE/MO border intersection. Ongoing convective line across MO has
modified the boundary across northern MO, pushing it southward into
central MO. MCV associated with ongoing showers and thunderstorms
across southeast CO and western KS is expected to track
northeastward along or just north of this stationary front early
this morning and likely play a role in convective development this
afternoon. Poor performance within the guidance of convectively
induced, meso-beta scale features suggests its evolution is
uncertain. Current expectation is for the MCV to drift northeastward
early this morning before then turning more eastward in response to
the shortwave trough dropping through the northern Plains.
Thunderstorm development is then anticipated along the southern
periphery of this MCV across northeast KS and southeast NE.
Previously mentioned stationary front as well as modified outflow
may also be in this area, providing additional foci for convective
initiation.

The air mass where this convective initiation is expected to occur
will be warm (temperatures in the 90s), very moist (dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s), and strongly buoyant (MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg). As a
result, strong updrafts are anticipated. Vertical shear will be
modest, so the initial development will likely become
outflow-dominant quickly, with subsequent development anticipated on
the resulting cold pool. Strong wind gusts are the primary severe
threat but some hail is possible with the early development.
Presence of several surface boundaries suggests there is a low
probability tornado threat as well.

...Mid MS and OH Valleys...
Weak surface convergence along a slow-moving cold front amidst very
warm and moist conditions is expected to result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley.
Vertical shear will be very weak, limiting storm organization and
longevity. Even so, a few water-loaded downbursts capable of
damaging wind gusts are possible.

...Maine...
A subtle speed max/low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently
moving into the Lower Great Lakes. Lift associated with this
shortwave is likely contributing to the areas of light reflectivity
from Lake Ontario southward into north-central PA. This shortwave is
expected to continue northeastward, reaching Maine later this
morning. Modest theta-e advection is expected ahead of this
shortwave, contributing to enough instability for thunderstorms. A
few severe storms are probable, with strong wind gusts as the
primary threat. Some isolated large hail is also possible.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the higher
terrain before moving out into the moist post-frontal air mass
across the region. Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow beneath the
northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to moderate vertical shear
(highest across northern portions of the region) and the potential
for a few stronger, more organized storms capable of strong wind
gusts and isolated hail.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/21/2019

$$


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