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ACUS11 KWNS 210402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210401
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern KS into southern and central
NE...southwest IA and northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210401Z - 210600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected to develop over the next couple
of hours across parts of northern KS, southern NE and southwest
IA/northwest MO. A few strong wind gusts and marginal hail will be
possible with the strongest storms overnight.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms across far east-central CO into
western KS will continue to shift east/northeast tonight, becoming
increasingly elevated with time. Latest surface analysis indicates a
rather strong meso high has developed on the back side of this
convection across southeast CO. Pressure rises of around 3mb in the
past 2 hours were evident and severe wind gusts associated with what
appears to be gravity waves/bore (visible in radar data from DDC)
have occurred across Hamilton and Kearny Counties in southwest KS.
Further east, an outflow boundary/stationary front was oriented
southwest to northeast from western KS near KTQK into far southeast
NE near KFNB. Midlevel CU was increasing along and north of this
boundary per IR satellite imagery. This activity is expected to
eventually organize into storm clusters along and north of the
surface boundary in warm advection regime atop EML captured between
850-700 mb in 00z regional RAOBs. The south/southwesterly low level
jet of 30-40 kt is already evident across much of the southern and
central Plains via 88-D VWP data and thunderstorms are expected to
increase over the next couple of hours.

A moderately unstable airmass will persist across the region
overnight, and steep midlevel lapse rates were sampled in evening
sounding data. Modest effective shear will result in some organized
structures, but overall severe threat will be tempered by the
elevated nature of convection and messy storm mode. Still, a few
strong wind gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the
strongest storms. Trends will be monitored, but a watch does not
appear likely at this time.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...
GLD...

LAT...LON   39069844 38370010 38390071 39070104 40120090 41050003
            41559873 41829738 41829573 41659461 41299420 40659405
            40029424 39699456 39649584 39309772 39069844



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