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ACUS11 KWNS 202224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202224
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Eastern New York...Vermont...Western
Massachusetts...and eastern Pennsylvania.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202224Z - 210000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing isolated strong to severe
downbursts are expected through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form in an unstable air mass in
the Northeast. Wind profiles across the region are quite weak,
suggesting the threat for widespread severe weather is quite low.
However, the very unstable (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and high PWAT (~2"
environment will support precipitation loading within updrafts and
the potential for wet microbursts. Slightly better mid-level flow is
present in southern Quebec and skirting northern New York and
Vermont. Therefore, the severe weather threat may be somewhat higher
in this area with any storms that can develop, and especially if the
ongoing cluster in southern Quebec moves south of the international
border. A severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated at this time.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42907676 44627575 45057490 45087327 44957272 44627240
            44277231 43687230 42957229 42307258 42057302 41777342
            41297399 41027436 40877498 40807537 40937571 42277653
            42907676



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