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ACUS11 KWNS 202213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202212
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Northern Indiana...southern Michigan...and
northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202212Z - 202345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected through
the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...An outflow dominant line of storms is moving south out
of Michigan and has produced occasional 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.
Additional development has started in far southwest Michigan as this
boundary interacts with a very unstable air mass (MLCAPE ~3000
J/kg). In addition, a storm cluster currently near Chicago may move
into this area later this evening. Shear is quite weak (20 to 25 kts
per KIWX VWP), and is oriented mostly parallel to the boundary.
However, given the instability, some strong to occasionally severe
storms cannot be ruled out. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed if stronger cores develop this evening.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   41808748 42128677 42188551 42108463 42088386 41928362
            41718354 41488365 41278413 41178467 41178546 41258615
            41288670 41528745 41808748



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