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ACUS11 KWNS 202140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202140
IAZ000-202315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202140Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms has developed in central Iowa. This
cluster will pose a threat of large hail and damaging wind through
the afternoon and into the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in central Iowa has developed on
the cool side of an outflow boundary from the early day MCS. This
convection is likely elevated which would suggest hail as the
primary threat, but KDMX base velocity shows 50+kt inbound
velocities at 1500 feet suggesting there is enough downward momentum
to bring some damaging winds to the surface. There is considerable
uncertainty about the evolution of this convection as it is not well
resolved by current CAM solutions. The outflow boundary has stalled
now around 2 counties south of the ongoing convection, so it is
possible these storms could become more surface based as they move
toward this more warm and buoyant airmass near the boundary, but
shear will also be weaker with southward extent. In addition, most
guidance suggests additional convection in this area during the late
evening and early overnight hours, so this convection may not
materialize into much and the greater threat may be with additional
development during the early overnight hours. Trends will continue
to be monitored for a potential watch, but the need for a watch is
not clear at this time.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41899579 42159507 42249418 42179331 42009261 41649211
            41369203 41059229 40939295 40869416 40939543 41209576
            41659570 41899579



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