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ACUS11 KWNS 202044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202044
MIZ000-202245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531...

Valid 202044Z - 202245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated strong/damaging wind gusts will
continue in WW 531. Greatest likelihood for these gusts will be in
east-central Lower Michigan. Another round of convection may move
through later this evening, but a thoroughly overturned airmass
ahead of it leads to uncertainty with regard to how severe the
secondary line will be.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing line of convection continues to move
southeastward into central and southern Lower Michigan. This line
has become less organized in the last few hours with velocities
behind the leading convection trending downward as well as outflow
moving ahead of the convection per KGRR radar imagery. Ahead of this
activity, upper 70s dewpoints have advected into a narrow corridor
of southwestern/south-central Michigan. Here, 2500-3500 MLCAPE may
support a few isolated strong updrafts with potential for damaging
wind gusts. Farther north, in east-central Michigan, the convective
line has shown better intensity on radar. A small area of
east-central Michigan still contains modestly buoyant air (1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly higher deep layer shear (25-35 kts) where
isolated damaging wind gusts will remain possible.

A convective line now moving east through southern Wisconsin will
likely move into southern Lower Michigan later this evening.
However, given the amount of convective overturning that has
occurred in that region, the intensity of this line in a few hours
is highly in question. Should it encounter undisturbed warm sector
air, most likely along the southern Michigan border, strong/damaging
wind gusts would be possible.

..Wendt.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42268640 42568631 42928574 43308525 43868481 44348429
            44368344 44018253 43208239 42308315 41868380 41878629
            41948653 42268640



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