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ACUS11 KWNS 210154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210153
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-210300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern MO into west-central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535...

Valid 210153Z - 210300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts are still possible, mainly
across parts of northern MO through the remainder of the evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong storms continues to shift south this
evening into portions of north-central and northeast MO. Additional
isolated storms may also clip parts of far west-central IL. Measured
severe gusts greater than 60 mph occurred earlier this evening
across southern IA with additional wind damage reports received near
the MO/IA border in the last hour or so.  Overall intensity appears
to have waned some recently as convection shifts south of better
deep layer flow. KIRK reported a 37 kt gust at 0139Z. Strong
instability remains downstream, with surface dewpoints in the mid
70s contributing to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low level flow, steep
lapse rates and high PW values will continue to support strong
downdrafts and locally severe wind gusts are possible over the next
couple of hours.

Overall the threat should diminish over the next few hours.
Furthermore, the threat across west-central IL likely will not
develop as far east as previously expected and portions of the watch
could be cancelled early.

..Leitman.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42737489 43047421 42987316 42727173 42417113 42077122
            41787141 41587209 41527313 41607405 42017474 42447491
            42737489



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