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ACUS01 KWNS 210122
SWODY1
SPC AC 210120

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
CO...AND SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHWEST MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL MO...AND
EASTERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT STATE REFERENCE IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail and strong wind gusts are possible
across eastern Colorado this evening. Severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of the middle
Mississippi Valley and southern New England.

...01Z Update...

...Southern IA...Far Northeast MO...West-Central IL...
Cluster of storms across southern IA has become better organized
over the past hour with notable forward propagation. Resulting MCS
could pose a threat for strong wind gusts downstream across
southeast IA, northeast MO, and west-central IL and the Slight Risk
has been expanded and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535 was issued to
cover this threat. Additional information about this region is
available in MCD 1554.

...CO Front Range/Eastern CO/Southeast WY into the Central Plains...

Thunderstorms ongoing along the CO Front Range have remained largely
stationary thus far but recent radar trends suggest more
easterly/southeasterly motion is beginning across southeast CO. Air
mass downstream of these storms across far southeast CO and into
western KS is very buoyant and an increasing low-level jet could
enhance ascent across the region, helping to offset the modest
convective inhibition. Primary severe threat is strong wind gusts
and occasional hail. A brief tornado is also possible. Additional
information about this region is available in MCD 1553.

...Eastern NY into Southern New England...
Forward propagating convective line across eastern NY is expected to
continue southeastward into the warm, moist, and unstable air mass
downstream across southern New England. The lack of better vertical
shear suggest storms will remain largely short-lived with discrete
propagation on the outflow as the primary storm mode. Even so, the
air mass is supportive of water-loaded downdrafts capable of
damaging wind gusts. Anticipated coverage of damaging wind gusts
merits outlining a 15% wind probability across the region.

...Elsewhere...
Weakening trends noted within the widely scattered storms across
southern PA and northern VA is expected to continue. Line of storms
moving into the Lower Great Lakes is expected to weaken as it moves
into a less thermodynamically supportive environment.

..Mosier.. 07/21/2019

$$


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