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ACUS11 KWNS 210114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210114
KSZ000-COZ000-210215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 210114Z - 210215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail and damaging wind threat is expected to
persist into the overnight hours. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in Greeley and Wichita
counties in west central Kansas ahead of the MCS currently moving
eastward in Colorado. These storms have formed along and just south
of a front which is draped across the area. Expect a combination of
both surface based storms along and south of the boundary and more
elevated convection north of the boundary. MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000
J/kg and effective shear 35-40 knots north of the boundary and shear
around 25 to 30 knots south of the boundary should support a threat
for both damaging winds and large hail into the overnight hours.

Enhanced low-level shear along and on the cool side of the boundary
could support an isolated tornadic spin up, but the cooling boundary
layer will not be favorable for landspout type tornadoes along the
boundary, and storm motion should move to the cool side of the
boundary through time which will also likely mitigate a greater
tornado threat.

In addition, this area will likely be impacted by the MCS which has
started to accelerate eastward out of eastern Colorado. A watch will
likely be needed to cover the threat from this MCS and may be issued
earlier to cover any threat from this earlier convection which has
formed.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   39200241 39450195 39830120 39980060 39640025 38970000
            38560037 38130111 37920233 38970278 39200241



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