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ACUS11 KWNS 210104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210103
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-210200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...portions of southern NY into MA and northern CT/RI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210103Z - 210200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong, locally damaging wind gusts are
possible the next couple of hours before storms weaken through the
evening hours. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms continue this evening in the
vicinity of the Catskills and Hudson Valley, tracking east/southeast
toward southern New England. This corridor remains strongly unstable
with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Little inhibition is indicated via 00z
mesoanalysis with very warm temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
F. These storms are in a weak shear environment, but steep lapse
rates and PW values increasing to greater than 2 inches will
continue to support damaging downburst winds for another couple of
hours this evening. Convection should gradually weaken during the
evening hours. Overall threat is expected to remain isolated and
short-lived and a watch is not expected, though a couple of severe
wind gusts will be possible over the next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman.. 07/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42737489 43047421 42987316 42727173 42417113 42077122
            41787141 41587209 41527313 41607405 42017474 42447491
            42737489



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