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ACUS11 KWNS 202354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202354
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern MO...west-central IL and
southeast IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 202354Z - 210100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat may persist into portions of northern
MO and west-central IL this evening as a bowing storm cluster shifts
southeast from IA. Damaging winds will be the main concern and a
watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across south-central IA is becoming
better organized this evening as it has begun interacting with
outflow boundary from earlier convection. Wind gusts greater than 60
mph have already been measured with these storms, which are
occurring in a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE greater
than 3000 J/kg and 2-6 km lapse rates around 8 C/km. Effective shear
across the region is modest, around 25-35 kt, which is sufficient to
maintain organized updrafts. Forecast RAP soundings indicate a
deeply mixed boundary layer with favorable conditions for strong
downdrafts. While storms may track south of stronger deep layer
flow, buoyancy will remain more than adequate to maintain
convection, especially if upscale growth into a mature bowing
segment continues. As such, a severe threat with damaging wind
potential could persist south and east of WW 534. Current track
guidance shows convection near the end of the watch in the next
30-60 minutes, so a downstream watch will likely be needed soon.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39289286 39719390 40179451 40579463 40899446 41119403
            41269291 41389199 41369123 41129041 40789022 40189026
            39739047 39369109 39299185 39289286



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