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AWUS01 KWNH 202350
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0644
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...eastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202345Z - 210400Z

Summary...Short term training and cell mergers of storms over
eastern CO could pose a flash flood threat this evening.

Discussion...Convection developing in an axis of 2500/3500 J/KG of
MLCAPE extending from western KS into eastern CO has finally
overcome the mid level cap in place. As the storms break the cap,
the GOES-16 clean IR images showed cloud tops near -72C  over
portions of east central and southeast CO. The PUX radar is
showing hourly rainfall rates with the convection of greater than
2.50 inches over Pueblo and El Paso counties, but dry air in the
mid levels (as seen on recent HRRR soundings) and the PUX HCA
product indicate that hail is present, inflating those hourly
amounts.

A low level northeast flow behind a stationary front extending
across southeast CO into northwest KS is transports 1.00/1.25 inch
precipitable water air (which is about two standard deviations
above the mean) from the central Plains into eastern CO, feeding
the developing storms. As the remaining cap is eroded, the storm
coverage is expected to expand ahead of a mid level short wave
approaching from western CO.

Storms are expected to follow the moisture and strong instability
across eastern CO into far northwest KS through about 21/04z.
Ahead of the short wave, the mid level wind flow is fairly weak
(generally under 10 knots), so the storm motions could be chaotic
until the mid flow increases. This fosters the potential for short
term training, as well as cell mergers, as the storms fill in
along the front across the plains of eastern CO.

The HRRR has shown a remarkably consistent signature for heavy
rainfall across southeast CO with the developing convection, with
the highest rainfall amounts (generally between 2.00/4.00 inches)
occurring north and west of Lamar between 21/03z and 21/06z.
However, based on radar and satellite trends, it appears as though
the most recent HRRR is slow with the evolution of the storms over
southeast CO, as the cap has been broken earlier than then
anticipated.

As the convection becomes better organized across eastern CO, it
is expected to bleed over into far western KS and far southwest NE
after 21/03z.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40760326 40550250 40150212 39570188 39190184
            38620197 37260261 37210383 37830472 39610522
            40460448 40680390


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