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ACUS11 KWNS 202344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202343
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-210115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

Valid 202343Z - 210115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue into the early overnight
hours with a continued threat for both large hail and damaging
winds.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have developed and remained along the
Front Range this afternoon and evening. Storm motion has been
virtually stationary due to 15-20 knot northeasterly upslope flow
balanced by 15 to 20 knot mid-level southwesterly flow aloft. This
has provided sufficient deep layer shear for hydrometeor venting and
allowed most of the storms in the southern half of watch 533 to be
severe. The very steep (9+ C/km) lapse rate environment has
supported measured wind speeds up to 70 mph and hail as large as
1.25" thus far and that threat is expected to continue. Most CAM
guidance has shown this convection expanding eastward through the
evening and into the early overnight hours and KPUX radar data is
starting to show outflow boundaries expanding eastward indicating
this eastward propagation of new convective development may be
underway.

The northern half of watch 533 has seen much weaker convection up to
this point, but there has been a recent uptick in updraft strength
west of Denver in the last half an hour. Expect there will still be
an isolated severe threat in the northern half of the watch for the
next few hours, but expect the threat to continue to be less
widespread than areas farther south due to a cooler boundary layer.

..Bentley.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38410484 39290544 39880569 40510592 40860576 41190488
            41200441 40960398 39220241 38960223 38570191 37700194
            37260198 37040200 36910236 36830282 36850335 36990378
            37620432 38410484



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