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ACUS11 KWNS 201853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201853
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-202130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Colorado Front Range into southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 201853Z - 202130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form on the high terrain and move
slowly eastward with a hail and wind threat. A watch is likely prior
to 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Surface winds out of the northeast have brought 60 F
dewpoints as far west as the Ft. Collins and Denver areas where
temperatures continue to warm into the mid 80s F. Lapse rates aloft
are steep, resulting in MUCAPE values of 2000 J/kg along the Front
Range. Satellite shows that heating will continue, as winds
gradually veer to east/northeast, aiding upslope. Convection is
currently developing over the mountains, and over the next few
hours, storms should move toward the lower terrain. Westerly winds
aloft of 20-30 kt atop backed low-level winds will create hodographs
just long enough to support sustained cells, possibly splitting and
moving in a north/northeast or south/southeast direction.

Hail of 1-1.75" will be possible, along with localized damaging
downbursts as storms conglomerate. Southern areas are much warmer
and drier than farther north, but may particularly support outflow
production as storms move into this environment.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38150466 38290485 38560506 38740526 39080552 39830571
            41310565 41910557 41950527 41860487 41570430 41000398
            40460386 39700352 39160335 38630351 38230391 38130443
            38150466



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