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AWUS01 KWNH 201750
FFGMPD
MIZ000-202100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0643
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Northwest Lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201746Z - 202100Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely over a small part of northwest
Lower Michigan, and significant flooding impacts will be possible.
Radar estimates show up to around 10 inches of rain has already
fallen in a localized area. Additional thunderstorms and heavy
rain could occur for another 1-2 hours, exacerbating ongoing
impacts.

Discussion...MRMS and KGRR dual pol rainfall estimates
consistently show a small area of Mason and Lake Counties in
Michigan approaching 10 inches of total rainfall thus far. There
are a lack of real-time observations from the area of maximum
radar rainfall estimates, but a couple observations from the
periphery of the heavy rain band suggest the estimates are close
to accurate if not slightly underestimated. Hourly rain rates have
at times approached 3 inches. Both the rain totals and rain rates
are significant, with less than a 1 percent annual exceedance
probability for individual stations in this part of Michigan. An
additional 1-2 hours of heavy rainfall will be possible in some of
these areas, as an approaching squall line over western Lake
Michigan may not clear Lake County until after 19Z. Elevated
thunderstorms have been sustained to the north of a convective
outflow boundary between Ludington and Big Rapids, situated in a
stationary configuration and balanced by relatively strong
low-level inflow (possibly enhanced by the approaching squall
line). An additional large cluster of thunderstorms had developed
just to the north along the coast from Ludington to Frankfort, and
this could deliver several inches of rain in the next hour or so
in Benzie and Manistee Counties.

Given the magnitude of observed rainfall and the likelihood for
another hour or two of moderate to heavy rain, flash flooding is
likely and significant flooding impacts may be observed in the
hardest hit areas.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44958621 44858581 44488578 44198546 43898507
            43508517 43388596 43608653 44068674 44818657



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