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ACUS11 KWNS 201744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201743
MIZ000-WIZ000-201945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201743Z - 201945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A mature bowing segment will continue to move
east-southeastward into western Lower Michigan. Damaging wind gusts
are expected to remain the primary threat with this activity.
Another round of strong/severe convection is expected later in the
afternoon, more likely to impact southern Lower Michigan. A WW is
possible in the next hour or so and will likely cover both expected
scenarios.

DISCUSSION...A mature bowing segment has begun to cross Lake
Michigan and is expected to continue into portions of western
Michigan. The strongest portion of the bow is moving
east-southeastward and will likely interact with an ongoing complex
of storms along a boundary in northwestern Lower Michigan. Though
there is uncertainty with regard to how strong the bowing segment
will be after crossing the lake as well as what net effect storm
interactions will have, the potential for strong to severe wind
gusts is expected to continue. The most likely location for damaging
wind gusts will be along and just south of the roughly east-west
boundary just north of Mount Pleasant. Farther south, the airmass
has remained capped with a tendency to have drier air mix down in
the wake of last evening's convection. However, upper-70s dewpoints
reside in northern Indiana and may advect northward. This would
suggest that the threat for damaging wind gusts in southwestern
Lower Michigan would occur later this afternoon, perhaps with
secondary lines of convection across southeastern and/or
southwestern Wisconsin. A WW is possible and likely will cover both
of the described scenarios.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...

LAT...LON   44768658 44388457 43648406 42588404 42188550 42418649
            43418770 44318751 44738717 44768658



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